When Going in Circles is Going Backward: Outcome Uncertainty in NASCAR

Abstract

Using data from the 2007, 2008, and 2009 National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing (NASCAR) seasons, this article shows that the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis pertains to both race attendance and television audience, with the former only responding to season-level uncertainty and the latter responding to both race-level and season-level uncertainties. Counter to conventional wisdom, the price of gasoline and unemployment were unrelated to the reported level of attendance. Furthermore, NASCAR broadcasts lose audience when competing against other high-interest sporting events and declines in both television ratings and audience size during the NASCAR season were not unique to 2009. Overall, the empirical evidence suggests that declining competitive balance might have been the common factor that reduced both television audiences and race attendance during this period.

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