Financial early‐warning models on cross‐holding groups

Abstract

Purpose This paper primarily uses statistical methods to establish financial early‐warning models that make it possible to predict, in advance, the probability of a company experiencing financial distress. Design/methodology/approach In its empirical analysis, this is the first study that attempts to use financial ratios and non‐financial ratios as variables to analyze business groups, and the present study uses the (K‐S tests), and (M‐U tests) and logit regressions model. Findings Financial ratio variables remain the primary variables for predicting corporate financial distress. Upon examining the predictor variables for corporate financial distress at one, two, and three years prior to distress, it was found that financial ratio variables were the main ones at one and two years prior to distress, while at three years prior to distress there was one financial ratio variable and two ownership structure variables that showed significant differences. Financial structure, solvency, profitability, and cash flow indicators are the principal financial ratio variables. Ratios of director and supervisor ownership stakes after pledging of shares differed significantly between financially distressed and non‐distressed companies. Establishing independent directors and supervisors can lower the likelihood of financial distress. Research limitations/implications As the time remaining before occurrence of financial distress grows shorter, test results show that the number of financial ratios with significant differences goes up. But the longer the time that remains before occurrence of financial distress, the more the financial ratios show non‐significant differences. That is why a number of scholars hold that the longer the period under study, the less explanatory power it has. Originality/value The mean contribution of this paper is that establishing independent directors and supervisors can lower the likelihood of financial distress. The paper is useful to researchers or practitioners who are focused on financial risk management and corporate governance implementation.

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