The Consequences of Validated and Self-Reported Voting Measures

Abstract

This paper reports on the results of validation of the self-reported registration status and voting behavior of respondents in the 1976 and 1978 American National Election Studies. The results indicate about one in seven of the respondents misreported their registration status or voting behavior. Comparative analyses are conducted using simple regression models to see if differences in their explanatory power arise using validated and self-reported dependent variables. The results show that there are no major changes in the fundamental nature of basic relationships that have been observed since the first surveys were conducted. Analysis of the effects of overreported participation on estimates of the partisan division of the vote in three sets of subnational contests reveals a likely “bandwagan” effect. . Portions of the data utilized in this article were made available by the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. The data for the 1976 and 1978 American National Election Studies were originally collected by the Center for Political Studies of the Institute for Social Research. The University of Michigan, under a grant from the National Science Foundation. Neither the original collectors of the data nor the Consortium bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here. The comments of an anonymous reviewer, which resulted in a fruitful extension of the analysis, are gratefully acknowledged.

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