RISK PERCEPTION AND THE ANALYSIS OF RISK ATTITUDES*

John C. Quiggin

146 citations0/0 files storedAustralian Journal of Agricultural Economics

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Risk Perception and Management Agricultural risk and resilience

Abstract

Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann‐Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.

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References

1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk 1953Le Comportement de l'Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l'Ecole Americaine 1982A theory of anticipated utility 1948The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk 1978Subjectively weighted utility: A descriptive extension of the expected utility model 1962Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions.1977Preference for Insuring Against Probable Small Losses: Insurance Implications 1959Decision Making: An Experimental Approach

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