A Stochastic analysis of geographic mobility and population projections of the census divisions in the United States

Abstract

Examinase en esie esiudio el movimiento de personas de una division del oenso a otra entre 1955 y 1960 como proceso esiocdstico, Utilizando la teoria de las cadenas de Markov para construir las probabilidades observadas de movimiento desde cada division a todas las demos, el esiudio computa en seguida las distribuciones de equilibrio de las poblaciones blanca y de color de las nueve divisiones del censo.Despues de alcanzar un estado de equilibrio, se supone que la poblacitn: de cada division se manierulrti sin cambios .La teoria de las cadenas de Markov es util en el estudio de la movilidad geograjica a largo plazo; sin embargo, se hacen necesarias algunas modijicaciones especificae.Markov chains have been employed by Prais and by Kemeny and Snell! to measure intergenerational mobility; by Blumen, Kogan, and McCarthy2 to examine the movement of workers between industries; and by Berger and Snell" in both illustrative intercity population movements and intergenerational social mobility.This paper employs the theory of Markov chains in constructing a probabilistic migration model to project the future populations of census divisions in the United States. OBJECTIVESThis paper has the following two objectives: first, it calculates the April 1, 1965 and 1970, white populations of the nine census divisions, using regular stochastic matrices, and, second, it computes * The authors are indebted to Mrs. Pat Simpson for secretarial assistance.

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