Transportation’s Influence on Land Use Development: Historical Spatial-Temporal Approach

Abstract

The interrelationships between transportation and land use remain contentious despite extensive research. In particular, the influence of transportation system performance on land use development, although recognized as a lagged relationship, has yet to be fully understood. The existing methodological approaches are critically evaluated, and support for the development of a novel historical spatial–temporal approach is provided. The uniqueness of this approach is based on the creation, modification, and analysis of extensive historical databases (1964 to 1998) of transportation system performance (annual weekday traffic volumes) and microscale parcel level data (land use, actual use, and year of development) for the city of Calgary. All data are in yearly time steps, stored within a geographic information system (GIS) framework. Both data sets are significantly modified to create ( a) a congestion index based on volume/capacity ratios and ( b) development intensity and rates of change based on existing transportation zones. An example focus is on warehousing and logistics land uses, which are critically important to the city’s economy and broadly underexamined within the field. Methods used include scientific visualization, correlation analysis, and the use of GIS spatial analytical approaches. The results support the appropriateness of the data modifications and exemplify the value of scientific visualization. At a systemwide level, the timing and location of warehousing and logistics development are found to be statistically associated with high-congestion areas. For individual transportation zones, the relationship between developments and zone proximal congestion is less clear, although there is weak evidence for the existence of lagged effects.

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