Trip Generation Modeling Using CHAID, a Criterion-Based Segmentation Modeling Tool

Orlando Strambi · Karin-Anne van de Bilt

30 citations0/0 files storedTransportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Urban Transport and Accessibility demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

Conventional trip generation models are identified, as are the difficulties of model application typical of segmentation problems: identification and categorization of explanatory variables and of the interactions among them. The use of CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection), a criterion-based segmentation modeling tool, is explored to analyze household trip generation rates. CHAID models are presented in the form of a tree, each final node representing a group of homogenous households concerning daily trip making. An application to data from an origin-destination survey for São Paulo produced interesting results, in agreement with theoretical expectations and amenable to interpretation based on the likely activity-travel patterns of each group of households generated by the technique. CHAID can be used as an exploratory technique for aiding model development or as a model by itself. The use of CHAID results as a trip generation model was verified through an evaluation of its predictive capability in a cross comparison of two subsamples and through a comparison of observed versus predicted trips at a zone level; the segmentation of households produced by the technique provided good estimates of trip rates and zone totals. The application of a modeling approach requiring a highly disaggregate projection of the population may become possible considering the advances in methods for the generation of synthetic populations. The use of these methods in conjunction with a segmentation model represents an alternative to conventional trip generation models and an opportunity to introduce new population forecasting techniques into transportation planning practice.

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References

1990Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts 1975Transportation research 1996Creating synthetic baseline populations 1991Using Count Data Models in Travel Cost Analysis with Aggregate Data 1997Generation of Synthetic Daily Activity-Travel Patterns 1979Travel behaviour and the total activity pattern 1997Hierarchical Tree-Based Versus Ordinary Least Squares Linear Regression Models: Theory and Example Applied to Trip Generation

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