Population Redistribution in Malawi since 1964

Abstract

Population redistribution in Malawi since 1964 is examined in terms of levels and intensities of spontaneous national regional and district redistribution. Geographic patterns of internal movement and interrelationships between internal migration and selected measures of modernization are also examined. The governments development-oriented strategies are considered to be responsible for these shifts i.e. the opening of commercial estates in the central and northern regions and in sparsely populated rural areas in the south and establishment of service centers or growth poles in unpopulated areas. The significance of this natural movement is that many African countries have experienced lopsided developed. Census data for 1966 1977 and 1987 were used primarily in the analysis; unpublished and published data from other government sources were also available. Factor analysis was used to define the trends and regression for defining the statistical relationships between variables. Population and land resources are described. Population distribution has evened out since 1966 as evidenced by the flattened Lorenz curve. Location quotients are also calculated to reflect the relative concentration of population. The patterns of internal migration are described. In-migration out-migration and net migration are explained in stepwise regressions by socioeconomic development measures converted into orthogonal factor dimensions through principal components analysis with varimax rotation. 9 regression models were generated and all were significant at the 5% level. In 1966 agriculture education (negative and positive signs) urbanization (positive signs) and density (negative sign) were significant in accounting for the variations in dependent variables. R2 values equaled .48-.97. The pattern for 1977 was similar with R2 values ranging from .49 to .82. The policy implications involve the population pressure on land resources in the south the longterm growth of population which is increasing at the fast rate of 3%/year and expected to consume land resources and competition between land uses.

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