The Evolution of China's Naval Strategy and Capabilities: From “Near Coast” and “Near Seas” to “Far Seas”

Abstract

This study first shows that China's naval strategy has undergone two major changes: from “near-coast defense” prior to the mid-1980s to “near-seas active defense” after the mid-1980s, and then to the advancement of a “far-seas operations” strategy. Related to the evolution of naval strategy is the change in naval capabilities: from limited capabilities for coastal defense to more expansive capabilities to operate more effectively in China's near seas by the late 2000s. The new strategy of “far-seas operations” endorsed since the mid-2000s may have major implications for the future development of China's naval capabilities. Second, this study argues that changes in naval strategy and capabilities can be accounted for by a combination of major variables, including the role of naval leadership and personal experience, endorsement of civilian leadership, changing perception of external security environment, availability of funding and technologies, and institutionalization of naval research. Also, while a major change in naval capabilities may be related to a change in naval strategy, it may also be driven by other highly contingent or idiosyncratic reasons.

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