Probability assignment to systematic deviations by the Principle of Maximum Entropy

Abstract

Systematic deviations influence the measurement uncertainty, which describes the state of knowledge about the true value of a measured quantity. As an interval estimation, the measurement uncertainty should always be given in terms of a probability statement. To establish it, a probability assignment for the systematic deviation is needed. Where an estimate of this location parameter is not part of the experimental data, we apply the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME), which yields unique, impersonal, and unbiased assignments based on nonstatistical information. As will be shown, the results are reasonable. The final measurement uncertainty, which is constructed to make use of both the experimental data and other prior knowledge, will correctly represent the state of knowledge with regard to the true value.

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