Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Falling and Stalling

David Shapiro · Tesfayi Gebreselassie

155 citations0/0 files storedAfrican Population Studies

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Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences Family Dynamics and Relationships Reproductive Health and Contraception

Abstract

This paper uses data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the current status of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa, including the extent to which fertility decline has stalled. Among the two dozen countries covered by multiple surveys, 22 have initiated fertility transition, and a third of these countries have experienced stalling of fertility decline. We study the links between changes in contraceptive use, fertility preferences, and socioeconomic development (as reflected in changes in women's education, infant and child mortality, and real per-capita economic growth) and fertility decline and stalling. Changes in the measures of socioeconomic development are all related to the likelihood of stalling. We also analyze determinants of age-specific fertility rates in urban and rural places, and assess future prospects for fertility decline in the region. Progress in increasing women's educational attainment and in reducing infant and child mortality are identified as key factors contributing to sustained fertility decline.

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References

1996Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions 1975An Economic Framework for Fertility Analysis 2002The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World 1986The Fertility Revolution: A Supply--Demand Analysis.1989Reproduction and Social Organization in Sub-Saharan Africa

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2016The Scramble for Africans: Demography, Globalisation and Africa’s Informal Labour Markets 2019Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education 2008Gender in African Population Research: The Fertility/Reproductive Health Example 2019Stalls in Fertility Transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa: Revisiting the Evidence 2013Women’s education and fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa 2008Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation?2017Women’s education, infant and child mortality, and fertility decline in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa 2014Variations in Desired Family Size and Excess Fertility in East Africa

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