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The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875–1997

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1995Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy104 cited

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2014Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy66 cited
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2007Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875–199737 cited
2008The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Frequently Asked Questions36 cited
2018The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?27 cited
2017When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment21 cited
2015Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads19 cited
2017The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation19 cited
2021Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?15 cited