An Improvement the Accuracy of Grey Forecasting Model for Cargo Throughput in International Commercial Ports of Kaohsiung

Abstract

Based on the grey theory, grey prediction models, which are GM (1, 1), have been adopted to predict the cargo throughput and modified GM (1, 1) using Fourier series called “FRMGM (1, 1)” for improving the accuracy of forecast model. A forecasting the cargo throughput in the international commercial port of Kaohsiung from 2013-2015 has also been conducted based on the previous data to serve as a reference for port management in making development plans and construction as well as orienting development in the future. All data source is collected from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication of Taiwan. Through simulation results, this study showed that both of two models are suitable but the FRMGM (1, 1) is the excellent model in forecast with average accuracy of predict is 100%. Hence, the FRMGM (1, 1) model is strongly suggested for forecast the cargo throughput in the port of Kaohsiung.

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