Optimal prediction of the ultimate maximum of Brownian motion

Abstract

At time 0 start to observe a Brownian path. Based upon the information, which is continuously updated through the observation of the path, a stopping time is determined such that the path is as close as possible to its unknown ultimate maximum over a finite time interval. The closeness is measured by a q-mean or by a probability distance. This can be formulated as an optimal stopping problem. The method of proof relies upon a representation of a conditional expectation of the gain process and the principle of smooth fit (at a single point).

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