An approach for evaluating the risk management role of governments in public–private partnerships for mega-event stadiums

Abstract

Although public investment is often seen as a necessary source of funding for major sporting event facilities, the degree of government involvement remains a controversial issue. This paper proposes an approach that minimizes government investments, without deterring the interest of private investors, in building/refurbishing stadiums for mega-events. Using the FIFA World Cup as an example, we concentrate our attention on demand risks, i.e., the risks related to attendance at matches. In order to deal with the risk-return trade-off, we build a model based on real options theory, which allows us to evaluate the size of the incentive the private entrepreneurs need to invest in a Public–Private Partnership (PPP) setting. Our main findings indicate that ancillary investments near the stadiums are essential to mitigate risks and that the coordination of a central government may reduce the capital required for risk management when several stadiums need to be built in a short time frame. Our results suggest that government should evaluate some infrastructure PPP projects as a portfolio of investments, instead of looking at opportunities only in a single-project basis.

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