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Rethinking the probative value of evidence: Base rates, intuitive profiling, and the "postdiction" of behavior.
16 references·14 citing·35 second hop
Rethinking the probative value of evidence: Base rates, intuitive profiling, and the "postdiction" of behavior. (2002)Rethinking the probative value of evidenc…Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk (2000)Violent Offenders: Appraising…Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. (2000)Improving risk assessments fo…Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (1999)Simple Heuristics That Make U…Violence by People Discharged From Acute Psychiatric Inpatient Facilities and by Others in the Same Neighborhoods (1998)Violence by People Discharged…Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity. (1995)Violent recidivism: Assessing…Violence and mental disorder: developments in risk assessment (1994)Violence and mental disorder:…Violent Recidivism of Mentally Disordered Offenders (1993)Violent Recidivism of Mentall…Understanding and Preventing Violence (1993)Understanding and Preventing …How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (1991)How We Know What Isn't So: Th…Physical Violence in American Families, 1985 (1989)Physical Violence in American…Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Extensional versus intuitive …Judgments of and by representativeness (1982)Judgments of and by represent…Criminal Justice and Behavior (1980)Criminal Justice and BehaviorJudgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Subjective probability: A jud…Inference to the Best Explanation, Relative Plausibility, and Probability (2020)Inference to the Best Explana…Can there be a burden of the best explanation? (2018)Can there be a burden of the …State of the field: Measuring information and confirmation (2014)State of the field: Measuring…Do changes in audit actions and attitudes consistent with increased auditor scepticism deter aggressive earnings management? An experimental investigation (2011)Do changes in audit actions a…The three errors: Pathways to false confession and wrongful conviction. (2010)The three errors: Pathways to…From False Confession to Wrongful Conviction: Seven Psychological Processes (2010)From False Confession to Wron…Bayes Wars Redivivus - An Exchange (2010)Bayes Wars Redivivus - An Exc…False confessions: causes, consequences, and implications. (2009)False confessions: causes, co…Criminal Profiling as Expert Evidence? (2007)Criminal Profiling as Expert …The Road to Perdition (2004)The Road to PerditionToward an Empirical Approach to Evidentiary Ruling. (2003)Toward an Empirical Approach …The Misquantification of Probative Value. (2003)The Misquantification of Prob…Sometimes what everybody thinks they know is true. (2003)Sometimes what everybody thin…Murder, Extramarital Affairs, and the Issue of Probative Value. (2003)Murder, Extramarital Affairs,…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)Human Problem Solving (1972)Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment (2002)Measurement Instruments for the Anthropomorphism, Animacy, Likeability, Perceived Intelligence, and Perceived Safety of Robots (2008)Heuristic Decision Making (2010)A new scale of social desirability independent of psychopathology. (1960)A Handbook for the Study of Mental Health: Social Contexts, Theories, and Systems (2009)Schizophrenia and Violence: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (2009)The Intricate Link Between Violence and Mental Disorder (2009)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review (2002)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition (2007)Understanding Desistance from Crime (2001)Genetic and environmental influences on antisocial behavior: A meta-analysis of twin and adoption studies. (2002)THE LAW OF CRIME CONCENTRATION AND THE CRIMINOLOGY OF PLACE* (2015)Psychopathy (1996)The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders: A meta-analysis. (1998)Carbon democracy: political power in the age of oil (2012)Withdrawing From School (1989)Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. (1993)The effects of feedback interventions on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. (1996)Gender and Crime: Toward a Gendered Theory of Female Offending (1996)Research on Domestic Violence in the 1990s: Making Distinctions (2000)Intimate partner physical abuse perpetration and victimization risk factors: A meta-analytic review (2003)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 1972Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness4,876 cited
  • 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.3,990 cited
  • 1999Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart3,562 cited
  • 1980Criminal Justice and Behavior1,723 cited
  • 1998Violence by People Discharged From Acute Psychiatric Inpatient Facilities and by Others in the Same Neighborhoods1,442 cited
  • 1994Violence and mental disorder: developments in risk assessment1,392 cited
  • 1993Understanding and Preventing Violence1,314 cited
  • 1989Physical Violence in American Families, 19851,251 cited
  • 2000Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk1,204 cited
  • 2000Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales.1,052 cited
  • 1991How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life989 cited
  • 1993Violent Recidivism of Mentally Disordered Offenders980 cited
  • 1995Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity.639 cited

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1982
Judgments of and by representativeness
632 cited

Cited by

  • 2004The Road to Perdition110 cited
  • 2009False confessions: causes, consequences, and implications.88 cited
  • 2010The three errors: Pathways to false confession and wrongful conviction.74 cited
  • 2011Do changes in audit actions and attitudes consistent with increased auditor scepticism deter aggressive earnings management? An experimental investigation67 cited
  • 2010From False Confession to Wrongful Conviction: Seven Psychological Processes65 cited
  • 2014State of the field: Measuring information and confirmation47 cited
  • 2003The Misquantification of Probative Value.27 cited
  • 2020Inference to the Best Explanation, Relative Plausibility, and Probability16 cited
  • 2003Toward an Empirical Approach to Evidentiary Ruling.16 cited
  • 2018Can there be a burden of the best explanation?14 cited
  • 2010Bayes Wars Redivivus - An Exchange13 cited
  • 2003Murder, Extramarital Affairs, and the Issue of Probative Value.11 cited
  • 2003Sometimes what everybody thinks they know is true.11 cited
  • 2007Criminal Profiling as Expert Evidence?9 cited