Project Evaluation and Uncertainty in Practice: A Statistical Analysis of Rate-of-Return Divergences of 1,015 World Bank Projects

Abstract

This article analyzes the World Bank's experience with project evaluation for a sample of 1,015 projects by comparing estimated rates of return at appraisal with reestimated rates of return when construction works are completed, usually 5 to 10 years after appraisal. The analysis highlights the high degree of uncertainty in project analysis. A wide range of variables has been introduced to explain the observed divergence in appraisal and reestimated rates of return, but only a relatively small part of the divergence can be explained, even with the benefit of hindsight. Project analysis thus has to cope with a large degree of uncertainty, which the traditional methods of project evaluation and selection have not been able to reduce.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 112 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.