Scenario Analysis of China's Primary Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions Based on IPAT Model

Abstract

Based on the policies of economic, energy and environment, the IPAT model is applied to analyze the scenarios of China's future primary energy demand and CO2 emissions. The results show that: primary energy demands and CO2 emissions will grow rapidly before 2020, due to the impact of the industrialization. The LCS scenario's primary energy demand reach 4.48 billion tce and CO2 emission 10.58 billion tons in 2020, which are far less than those in scenario-BUS; the goals of CO2 emission reduction and energy structure optimization are at the cost of slowing economic growth to some extent in scenario-LCS. The aggregate GDP has decreased by 8.26 trillion yuan compared to that in scenario-BUS; there are great scenario differences in energy demand structure. The expected energy structure would be achieved in scenario-LCS, as the share of coal slowly decreases and its physical quantity reaches 3.76 billion tons, and the non-fossil energies’ structure amounts to 15.95%; The scenario of LCS is a realistic choice to low carbon economy. The keys of the energy saving and energy structure optimization are the clean utilization of coal and development of new energy on a large scale.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 49 citations exist upstream.