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OBJECTIVE: Despite widespread concern that a major surplus of non-primary-care physicians is developing, little nonanecdotal information has been available. Therefore, we developed and applied a methodology for appraising the situation of new graduates. Graduates should be particularly vulnerable because, unlike seasoned physicians. they all must find employment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In April-May 1995, and in a December follow-up, we surveyed diagnostic radiology and radiation oncology training program directors about the status of their 1995 residency and fellowship graduates, their programs, and the employment market. More than 90% responded. We compared findings with similar 1994 surveys. Differences were assessed with t tests or multiple regression analyses, with a p value of less than or equal to .05 as the test of significance. RESULTS: Directors reported unemployment 6 months after graduation was 0.6% (+/- 0.3%) for diagnostic radiology fellows and less for others. They said approximately 90% of graduates had positions reasonably matching their training and personal employment goals. Reported unemployment rates and percentages of graduates in desired positions did not differ from 1994. However, training directors generally were more pessimistic in 1995, overwhelmingly reporting the employment market was more difficult than in recent years. Few statistically significant differences among subgroups--including diagnostic subspecialties--were found. Net planned changes in program size will generate reductions of at most a few percent in the annual number of graduates, and more than 98% of beginning year residency slots were filled. CONCLUSION: Unemployment was remarkably low. Also, surprisingly, even "soft" indicators such as undesired positions or difficulties during the process of employment search (i.e., in April-May) did not show deterioration. Projections of pending physician surpluses may be exaggerated. Given our findings, program directors' growing pessimism is puzzling. This pessimism has not called forth sizable cuts in program size and, if major surpluses are pending, neither reductions in program size nor failure to fill all available slots offer significant relief, at least to date. The employment market is about equally good (or equally difficult) across diagnostic subspecialties. The absence of regional differences indicates graduates are effectively reaching beyond the locality where they trained in their employment search.
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