Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, Etc.

Abstract

OBSERVATIONS CONCERNING THE INCREASE OF MANKIND, PEOPLING OF COUNTRIES, &c. BENJAMIN FRANKLIN 1.Tables ofthe Proportion of Marriages to Births, ofDeaths to Births, ofMarriages to the Numbers ofInhabitants, &c. form'd on Observations made upon the Bills of Mortality, Christnings, &c. of populous Cities, will not suit Countries; nor will Tables form'd on Observations made on full settled old Countries, as Europe, suit new Countries, as America. 2.For People increase in Proportion to the Number ofMarriages, and that is greater in Proportion to the Ease and Convenience ofsupporting a Family. When Families can be easily supported, more Persons marry, and earlier in Life. 3. In Cities, where all Trades, Occupations and Offices are full, many delay marrying, till they can see how to bear the Charges of a Family; which Charges are greater in Cities, as Luxury is more common: many live single during Life, and continue Servants to Families,Journeymen to Trades, &c. hence Cities do not by natural Generation supply themselves with Inhabitants; the Deaths are more than the Births. 4.In Countries full settled, the Case must be nearly the same; all Lands being occupied and improved to the Heighth: those who cannot get Land, must Labour for others that have it; when Labourers are plenty, their Wages will be low; by low Wages a Family is supported with Difficulty; this Difficulty deters many from Marriage, who therefore long continue Servants and single. Only as the Cities take Supplies of People from the Country, and thereby make a little more Room in the Country; Marriage is a little more incourag'd there, and the Births exceed the Deaths. Editor's Note: This essay was written in 1751, published in the Gentlemen's Magazine, November 1755, and widely republished during the next fifteen years. The essay influenced economic thought in England. Thomas Malthus quoted the essay and accepted Franklin's estimate ofpopulation increase in America. The essay illustrates attitudes toward slavery based on economic rather than moral considerations and attitudes toward nonwhites which are now characterized as racist. 469 5· Europe is generally full settled with Husbandmen, Manufacturers, &c. and therefore cannot now much increase in People: America is chiefly occupied by Indians, who subsist mostly by Hunting. But as the Hunter, ofall Men, requires the greatest Quantity ofLand from whence to draw his Subsistence, (the Husbandman subsisting on much less, the Gardner on still less, and the Manufacturer requiring least of all), The Europeans found America as fully settled as it well could be by Hunters; yet these having large Tracks, were easily prevail'd on to part with Portions of Territory to the new Comers, who did not much interfere with the Natives in Hunting, and furnish'd them with many Things they wanted. 6.Land being thus plenty in America, and so cheap as that a labouring Man, thatunderstandsHusbandry, can in a short Time saveMoney enough to purchase a Piece of new Land sufficient for a Plantation, whereon he may subsist a Family; such are not afraid to marry; for ifthey even look far enough forward to consider how their Children when grown up are to be provided for, they see that more Land is to be had at Rates equally easy, all Circumstances considered. 7.Hence Marriages in America are more general, and more generally early, than in Europe. And if it is reckoned there, that there is but one Marriage per Annum among 100 Persons, perhaps we may here reckon two; and ifin Europe they have but 4 Births to a Marriage (many oftheir Marriages being late) we may here reckon 8, ofwhich if one half grow up, and our Marriages are made, reckoning one with another at 20 Years ofAge, our People must at least be doubled every 20 Years. 8.But notwithstanding this Increase, so vast is the Territory ofNorthAmerica , that it will require many Ages to settle it fully; and till it is fully settled, Labour will never be cheap here, where no Man continues long a Labourer for others, but gets a Plantation ofhis own, no Man continues long a Journeyman to a Trade, but goes among those new Settlers, and sets up for himself, &c. Hence Labour is no cheaper now, in Pennsylvania, than...

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