A Note on the Easterlin Model of Fertility in Northwestern Europe and the United States: 1950-1981

Abstract

This paper tests a multivariate time series model of West European fertility change based on Easterlins social and economic analysis of post-1945 fertility trends in the United States. Results indicate that fertility trends in Western Europe during the years 1950-1981 are associated with relative unemployment levels and in some countries with age specific labor force supply constraints. Ex-post forecasts of fertility are generated up to 1981 for England and Wales France Sweden and the United States. The difficulties with providing ex-ante forecasts are discussed. (EXCERPT)

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