Shift‐Share Analysis and the Potential for Predicting Regional Growth Patterns: Some Evidence for the Region of Quebec, Canada

Abstract

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to explain changes in regional attractiveness as measured by the competitive component of the shift‐share model. This is done by applying the shift‐share model to the manufacturing sector in the province of Quebec and using time series data for twenty two‐digit industries as the basis of analysis. The study concludes that shift‐share is useful for analyzing historical employment patterns and identifying their causes through regression analysis. However, the inherent structural instability limits the predictive potential of the model.

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