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MAXIMIZING PREDICTABILITY IN THE STOCK AND BOND MARKETS
16 references·16 citing·36 second hopsampled
MAXIMIZING PREDICTABILITY IN THE STOCK AND BOND MARKETS (1997)MAXIMIZING PREDICTABILITY IN THE STOCK AN…On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills (2015)On Market Timing and Investme…The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums (1991)The Variation of Economic Ris…The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity (1991)The Term Structure as a Predi…When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction? (1990)When Are Contrarian Profits D…Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency (1990)Fads, Martingales, and Market…Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns (1990)Evidence of Predictable Behav…Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds (1989)Business conditions and expec…A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle (1989)A New Approach to the Economi…Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test (1988)Stock Market Prices Do Not Fo…Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model (1987)Estimating Time Varying Risk …Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets (1986)Predicting returns in the sto…Economic Forces and the Stock Market (1986)Economic Forces and the Stock…Stock Returns and the Term Structure (1985)Stock Returns and the Term St…Does the Stock Market Overreact? (1985)Does the Stock Market Overrea…Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests (1973)Risk, Return, and Equilibrium…An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (1973)An Intertemporal Capital Asse…Fuzzy modeling of stock trading with fuzzy candlesticks (2017)Fuzzy modeling of stock tradi…Stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market—Evidence from threshold quantile autoregressive models (2016)Stock return autocorrelations…An adaptive robust portfolio optimization model with loss constraints based on data-driven polyhedral uncertainty sets (2016)An adaptive robust portfolio …Predictability and ‘good deals’ in currency markets (2015)Predictability and ‘good deal…Predictions of corporate bond excess returns (2014)Predictions of corporate bond…Selection of a Portfolio of Pairs Based on Cointegration: A Statistical Arbitrage Strategy (2013)Selection of a Portfolio of P…Seleção de uma Carteira de Pares de Ações Usando Cointegração: Uma Estratégia de Arbitragem Estatística (2013)Seleção de uma Carteira de Pa…A Combined Signal Approach To Technical Analysis On The S&P 500 (2011)A Combined Signal Approach To…Stock Market Trading Volume (2010)Stock Market Trading VolumeApplications of State Space Models in finance (2009)Applications of State Space M…Is Time‐Series‐Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?* (2006)Is Time‐Series‐Based Predicta…On the Predictability of Stock Returns in Real Time (2005)On the Predictability of Stoc…Inference About Predictive Ability (2004)Inference About Predictive Ab…What are the global sources of rational variation in international equity returns? (1997)What are the global sources o…Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns (1997)Measuring the Predictable Var…9 Predictable components in stock returns (1996)9 Predictable components in s…The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing (1976)The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns (1992)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Industry costs of equity (1997)The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure (1979)Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation (1982)Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns (1992)Threshold heteroskedastic models (1994)The variation of certain speculative prices (1997)Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series (1982)Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing (1987)The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis (1989)ARCH modeling in finance (1992)Introductory Econometrics for Finance (2008)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices (1965)THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.] (1975)On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance (1997)A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (1985)The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors (1986)Expected stock returns and volatility (1987)Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns (2001)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)The relationship between return and market value of common stocks (1981)Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects (2002)Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work (1970)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)Efficient Capital Markets: II (1991)Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (1993)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, by John Maynard Keynes (1936)The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. (1936)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies (1996)Specification Tests in Econometrics (1978)Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach (1991)
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References

  • 1973Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests14,248 cited
  • 1989A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle9,681 cited
  • 1985Does the Stock Market Overreact?7,569 cited
  • 1973An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model6,557 cited
  • 1986Economic Forces and the Stock Market5,258 cited
  • 1989Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds3,934 cited
  • 1988Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test3,745 cited
  • 1990Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns2,702 cited
  • 1987Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model2,469 cited
  • 1985Stock Returns and the Term Structure2,260 cited
  • 1991The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums1,740 cited
  • 1991The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity1,739 cited
  • 1986Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets1,715 cited
  • 1990When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?1,707 cited
  • 1990Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency1,596 cited
  • 2015

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On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills
1,206 cited

Cited by

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  • 2006Is Time‐Series‐Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?*74 cited
  • 2013Selection of a Portfolio of Pairs Based on Cointegration: A Statistical Arbitrage Strategy69 cited
  • 2010Stock Market Trading Volume57 cited
  • 2004Inference About Predictive Ability52 cited
  • 2017Fuzzy modeling of stock trading with fuzzy candlesticks42 cited
  • 2014Predictions of corporate bond excess returns39 cited
  • 2016An adaptive robust portfolio optimization model with loss constraints based on data-driven polyhedral uncertainty sets37 cited
  • 2013Seleção de uma Carteira de Pares de Ações Usando Cointegração: Uma Estratégia de Arbitragem Estatística32 cited
  • 19969 Predictable components in stock returns30 cited
  • 2015Predictability and ‘good deals’ in currency markets29 cited
  • 2016Stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market—Evidence from threshold quantile autoregressive models28 cited
  • 2011A Combined Signal Approach To Technical Analysis On The S&P 50026 cited
  • 2009Applications of State Space Models in finance26 cited
  • 1997What are the global sources of rational variation in international equity returns?22 cited