Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Purna Chandra Parida · Pravakar Sahoo

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Global trade and economics Economic Growth and Productivity Economic and Technological Innovation

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.

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References

1987Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing 1981Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root 2002Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties 1992Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root 1991Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries 1989Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries 1966International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle 1999Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors

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