Vital Rates in India 1961-1981

Abstract

India has a long history of census-taking going back to 1881. However analysis of the data is hindered by poor quality incomplete national coverage irregular tabulation categories underenumeration and age misreporting. Indias civil registration system which dates back to the 1860s is plagued by both underregistration and incomplete coverage. As an alternative the Sample Registration System (SRS) was initiated in 1964-65 with the main objective of providing reliable estimates of birth and death rates at the national and subnational levels. While incomplete and somewhat uneven it provides provides valuable information on vital statistics in India. In conjunction with the SRS 2 surveys have been conducted: a 1972 fertility survey and a 1979 survey on infant and child mortality. The National Sample Surveys (NSS) an ongoing series of socioeconomic surveys have provided valuable data on children ever born and surviving from which indirect estimates of child and infant mortality could be derived. This report draws on the described data sources to provide estimates both for all-India and for the 15 Indian states with population above 5 million in 1971. A major conclusion of the mortality analysis is that a large decline in child mortality occurred in India during the 1960s. The estimates of adult mortality and crude death rates presented here point to a sizable mortality improvement. The analysis of total fertility appropriately corrected implies that the decline in fertility has been faster than generally believed. The change in the crude birth rate has been slower. On a regional level in general higher mortality and fertility conditions are presistently found in the North than in the South of the country. There is however little regional differentiation in recent changes in vital rates. State-specific results are elaborated on; they are the focus of the majority of this report. The various estimation technics used corrections and adjustments made are explained.

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