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Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making
6 references·16 citing·45 second hop
Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making (1983)Improving the Consistency of Conditional …Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty (1982)Causal schemas in judgments u…Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. (1978)Fault trees: Sensitivity of e…Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis (1975)Exceptional Paper—Probability…Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions (1975)Cognitive Processes and the A…Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and re…Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. 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Cognitive Biases in a Complex Processing Activity (2006)Errors in Creative Thought? C…Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis (1991)Interaction of Judgemental an…Design aspects of an advanced model-oriented DSS for scheduling problems in civil engineering (1989)Design aspects of an advanced…The AI potential of model management and its central role in decision support (1988)The AI potential of model man…A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning (1988)A new method of scenario anal…Decision and risk analysis (1987)Decision and risk analysisA Decision Aid For Selecting Among Information System Alternatives (1987)A Decision Aid For Selecting …Technological forecasting for decision making (1972)Forecasting: Methods and Applications. 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this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1969Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty.1,928 cited
  • 1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
  • 1978Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation.708 cited
  • 1975Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis663 cited
  • 1982Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty613 cited
  • 1975Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions479 cited

Cited by

  • 1991Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis187 cited
  • 2007Social Innovation: Enhancing Creative Performance Through Causal Analysis148 cited
  • 1988A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning103 cited
  • 2016Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions102 cited
  • 2006Errors in Creative Thought? Cognitive Biases in a Complex Processing Activity89 cited
  • 2009Leader cognition: Improving leader performance through causal analysis77 cited
  • 2006Optimal Sequential Exploration: A Binary Learning Model68 cited
  • 1988The AI potential of model management and its central role in decision support

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66 cited
  • 2010Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-Making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem63 cited
  • 1987Decision and risk analysis41 cited
  • 2011Uncertainty and uncertainty analysis methods39 cited
  • 2011Consequences Identification in Forecasting and Ethical Decision-Making37 cited
  • 2010Leader errors and the influence on performance: An investigation of differing levels of impact35 cited
  • 1987A Decision Aid For Selecting Among Information System Alternatives35 cited
  • 1989Design aspects of an advanced model-oriented DSS for scheduling problems in civil engineering32 cited
  • 2014The effects of mental steps and compatibility on Bayesian reasoning30 cited