‘Riding on the Sheep’s Back’: Examining Australia’s Dependence on Wool Exports

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of the wool export cycle on the business cycle in Australia over the period 1862–1995. Nonparametric statistical methods are used to examine various attributes of the relationship between the wool export cycle and the business cycle. Our results support the view that while the wool export cycle was in synchronisation with the business cycle prior to the First World War, after the War wool exports no longer played a dominant role in the evolution of the business cycle. In addition, while the wool export cycle became more volatile after the War, the business cycle became more stable.

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