Currency Substitution: Theory and Evidence for Latin America

John T. Cuddington · Victor A. Canto · Gerald Nickelsburg

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Abstract

1. Introduction.- References.- 2. A General Equilibrium Theory of Exchange Rates and Managed Floating.- 1. Multiple Stochastic Exchange Rate Equilibria.- 1.1 The Model.- 1.2 Multiple Equilibria.- 1.3 Mathematical Appendix.- 2. Price Uncertainty and Flexible Exchange Rates.- 2.1 Additional Model Specification.- 2.2 Temporary Equilibrium.- 2.3 Remarks.- 3. A Welfare Analysis.- 3.1 Additional Model Specifications.- 3.2 Risk Sharing and R(FE,PA) Regimes.- 3.3 Loosely and Tightly Managed Float Regimes.- 3.4 A Word on Fixed Exchange Rates.- 3.5 Concluding Remarks.- 3.6 Mathematical Appendix.- References.- 3. Empirical Implementation of the Instability Hypothesis.- 1. Instability and Theoretical Models.- 2. Modelling Considerations.- 3. The Model.- 4. Equilibrium with Government Intervention.- 5. Dominican Currency Crises.- 6. Concluding Remarks.- References.- 4. Currency Substitution and Small Open Economies: The Case of the Dominican Republic.- 1. Stylized Institutional Features of the Dominican Republic Parallel Market.- 2. The Empirical Model.- 2.1 Solution to the Market Clearing Exchange Rate under Imperfect Information.- 3. Empirical Analysis.- 3.1 The Univariate ARIMA Models for the Different Variables.- 3.2 Causal Structure Between the Exchange Rate and Domestic Money Supply.- 3.3 The Transfer Function Model.- 4. Summary and Conclusions.- Notes.- References.- 5. Dominant Currencies and Monetarism in Argentina.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Basic Dominant Currency Modelling Considerations.- 3. A Summary of Argentina's Exchange Rate Systems 1956-82.- 4. The Case of Argentina.- 4.1 Nominal Exchange Rate, Domestic Money Supply Growth and Foreign Prices.- 4.2 Inflation and Money Supply Growth.- 4.3 Real Exchange Rates, Domestic Money Supply Growth and Foreign Prices.- 5. Evidence of One Way Currency Substitution.- 6. Money, Exchange Rates, and Prices.- References.- 6. Venezuela and Ecuador-Currency Substitution in Oil Economies.- 1. Stability and Homogeneity.- 2. Frequency Analysis of Money and Prices.- 3. Concluding Remarks.- References.- 7. Conclusion.

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