Inflation Analysis: An Overview

Geoff Kenny · Aidan Meyler

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Forecasting Techniques and Applications Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy (SOE), indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.

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References

1983Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions 1995Measuring Core Inflation 1995Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy 1996Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers 1998Forecasting irish inflation using ARIMA models 1998Is there Scope for Inflation Differentials in EMU? An Empirical Evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson Model in EMU Countries 1989Price Determination in Ireland: Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Regimes 1998Exchange rates and import prices for a small open economy: the case of Ireland

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