Prediction and Control in a Chance Task

Abstract

Summary In two experiments using a binary prediction task 117 female undergraduates were tested for the effects of sequence of outcomes in a chance-determined task on performance estimates, causal attributions, and perceived control. Results of both experiments indicate that subjects who experienced a descending sequence recalled more past success, predicted greater future success, and perceived themselves as better at predicting the outcomes than subjects in the ascending sequence. No significant differences were found on the causal attribution or perception of control measures. The results indicate that in some task situations performance estimates may be affected by a memory bias (i.e., primacy) while causal attributions and perceived control are not necessarily affected in the same manner.

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