On the use of dispersion measures from NAPM surveys in business cycle forecasting

Kajal Lahiri

47 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Forecasting

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

Abstract Qualitative survey data on changes in production, inventory, new order, and employment collected every month by the National Association of Purchasing Managers are analysed over 1948–90. The Probability method we use generates time‐series estimates of cross‐section variabilities across firms. It is shown that these diffusion measures have additional explanatory power in the prediction of business cycle turning points.

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References

1989A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle 1981A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’1982Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment 1988Variable Trends in Economic Time Series 1991A probability model of the coincident economic indicators 1972The Distribution of Share Price Changes 1989The limits to rational expectations 1975Inflation Expectations

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