Constructing Theories of Change

Abstract

`Theories of Change' has proved a popular approach for both evaluators and commissioners of complex social programmes, but the ways in which theories of change (ToC) evaluations have been implemented show considerable variation. This article draws on the ongoing work of the National Evaluation of the Children's Fund (NECF) and argues that the literature which discusses the ToC approach has neglected the process by which theories of change are constructed by stakeholders (and the implications of this for evaluation), while consistently describing such theories as `underdeveloped'. The authors argue that programme theory evaluations have relied on a process that emphasizes the importance of obtaining clarity at the outset, but that the detail of such theories and their implementation can only be obtained over time. An alternative approach is outlined, which the authors argue allows for a better understanding of programme theory, and hence knowledge and learning, to emerge.

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