Articlebronze1986

Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches

102 citations0/0 files storedDemography

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications Census and Population Estimation

Abstract

This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty.

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References

1981The Limits of Population Forecasting 1979Forecasting: An appraisal for policy-makers and planners 1983The Accuracy of Population Projections 1974The Growth and Structure of Human Populations; A Mathematical Investigation 1968World population : an analysis of vital data 1979Ergodic theorems in demography 1973Population: Facts and Methods of Demography.1985Uncertain Population Forecasting

Cited by

1999On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy 1990Alternative Projections of the U.S. population 2001Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations 1988Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors 2004Population Projections 1988Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods 1998The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: An evaluation using conifidence intervals for subcounty areas

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