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Sample proportions and subjective probability revisions
4 references·16 citing·47 second hop
Sample proportions and subjective probability revisions (1970)Sample proportions and subjective probabi…Subjective sampling distributions and conservatism (1968)Subjective sampling distribut…Man as an intuitive statistician. (1967)Man as an intuitive statistic…Conservatism in a simple probability inference task. (1966)Conservatism in a simple prob…Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities. (1965)Sample size and the revision …Computation-Limited Bayesian Updating (2023)Computation-Limited Bayesian …Choice with Limited Capacity (2019)Choice with Limited CapacityErrors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases (2018)Errors in Probabilistic Reaso…Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference (2017)Processing consistency in non…Where did that come from?—Identifying the source of a sample (2014)Where did that come from?—Ide…Exploring the Overestimation of Conjunctive Probabilities (2013)Exploring the Overestimation …Essays in Search and Learning. (2012)Essays in Search and Learning.A Model of Non-Belief in the Law of Large Numbers Draft for distribution in February 2011 talks | Missing proofs (2011)A Model of Non-Belief in the …Cognitive Approaches to Judgment and Decision Making (1995)Cognitive Approaches to Judgm…Probability as preparedness to act: Direct estimation versus indirect measurement (1976)Probability as preparedness t…Cue utilization in a numerical prediction task. (1975)Cue utilization in a numerica…Are Subjective Probabilities Probabilities? (1974)Are Subjective Probabilities …Conservatism as non-Bayesian performance: A reply to De Swart (1973)Conservatism as non-Bayesian …Rational and nonrational elements in reactions to disconfirmation of performance expectancies (1972)Rational and nonrational elem…A comment on Marks and Clarkson's explanation of conservatism (1972)A comment on Marks and Clarks…Experiments on probabilistic information processing (1970)Experiments on probabilistic …Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Are Risk Premium Anomalies Caused by Ambiguity? (2000)Decision waves: consumer decisions in today's complex world (2005)Modelling the effects of crime type and evidence on judgments about guilt (2018)New Directions in Psychology (1962)Sensitivity of subjective probability revision. 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(1955)Coherence of human judgment in a limited probabilistic environment (1973)Confidence marking: Its use in testing (1982)Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment (2002)Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (2007)The role of ANS acuity and numeracy for the calibration and the coherence of subjective probability judgments (2014)Inquiry Under Bounds (2024)An overview of the quantum cognition research program (2025)A model of investor sentiment /A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1 (1998)Central tendency bias in belief elicitation (2020)A Bayesian analysis of attribution processes. (1975)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework (1999)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1967Man as an intuitive statistician.966 cited
  • 1966Conservatism in a simple probability inference task.856 cited
  • 1965Sample size and the revision of subjective probabilities.193 cited
  • 1968Subjective sampling distributions and conservatism70 cited

Cited by

  • 1975Cue utilization in a numerical prediction task.37 cited
  • 2013Exploring the Overestimation of Conjunctive Probabilities34 cited
  • 1995Cognitive Approaches to Judgment and Decision Making33 cited
  • 1972Rational and nonrational elements in reactions to disconfirmation of performance expectancies33 cited
  • 2017Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference21 cited
  • 1970Experiments on probabilistic information processing21 cited
  • 1974Are Subjective Probabilities Probabilities?12 cited
  • 2018Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases9 cited
  • 1973Conservatism as non-Bayesian performance: A reply to De Swart8 cited
  • 1972A comment on Marks and Clarkson's explanation of conservatism5 cited
  • 2014Where did that come from?—Identifying the source of a sample3 cited

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1976
Probability as preparedness to act: Direct estimation versus indirect measurement
2 cited
  • 2019Choice with Limited Capacity1 cited
  • 2023Computation-Limited Bayesian Updating1 cited
  • 2012Essays in Search and Learning.0 cited
  • 2011A Model of Non-Belief in the Law of Large Numbers Draft for distribution in February 2011 talks | Missing proofs0 cited