Testing for cointegration between international stock prices

Abstract

This paper re-examines the evidence for cointegration between international stock prices. It applies Johansen's maximum likelihood (ML) cointegration method and likelihood ratio (LR) tests for cointegration to stock prices. In monthly data it finds at most one cointegrating vector and in quarterly data finds no cointegrating vectors. Using the small-sample corrections or the small-sample critical values it finds no evidence of cointegration. Johansen's LR tests for cointegration are sensitive to the lag length specification in the VAR model. In general it finds more evidence of cointegration in higher order VAR models. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen's LR tests for cointegration. It finds that international stock prices are not cointegrated.

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