Simulating impact of light rail on urban growth in Phoenix

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of the proposed Phoenix Light Rail transit system on future land use and household characteristics adjacent to station areas using a software-based simulation model called UrbanSim. UrbanSim is a microsimulation modeling environment, developed at the University of Washington, Seattle, which enables detailed analysis of the effect of different policy scenarios of future patterns of urban growth. Although existing literature suggests that projects such as the Phoenix Light Rail often increases the value of properties adjacent to the station areas, few studies have analyzed the nature and type of households that are drawn to these areas. The result of this analysis for Phoenix shows differential impacts of light rail on various neighborhoods with different existing land use and household characteristics. Particularly, the study draws attention to the potential gentrification of an area currently dominated by students of Arizona State University and suggests that preemptive strategies should be put in place to accommodate student housing.

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