Information Sources for Modeling the National Economy

Abstract

In modeling economic behavior all kinds of information should be used, not merely numerical data. Rich stores of information about economic structure and governing policies are available from mental data bases built up from experience and observation. The daily and weekly business press contains information from which a model can bridge from microstructure to macrobehavior. The System Dynamics National Model draws on all classes of information for its structure and policies. The National Model, without exogenous time series inputs, generates 3- to 7-year business cycles, 15- to 25-year capital cycles, 45- to 60-year long waves, and the processes of inflation, unemployment, and stagflation. Such a simulation model, based on a diversity of information sources, can shed new light on economic dynamics.

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