Do Parties Benefit from Electoral Manipulation? Electoral Laws and Heresthetics in Poland, 1989-93

Abstract

Electoral reforms had profound political consequences for post-communist Poland. The majoritarian system helped to accelerate the fall of communism, while later changes to the electoral law helped the former communists reclaim power. Despite the high stakes and top priority given to electoral design by political players, their efforts at manipulation were hardly rewarded. Although the political parties were ex ante seat-maximizers, they supported the electoral law that ex post would have given them the most seats about as frequently as they supported its closest competitor. The reasons for their miscalculations included a lack of methodological expertise, unexpected shifts in voter preferences, transition-specific poll biases and new entrants and coalitions that emerged in the period between the introduction of the new electoral law and elections. No significant differences among the various kinds of parties were found. The results do show that the effectiveness of manipulation increased strongly over time.

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