CALIFORNIA'S EXPORTS AND THE 2004 OVERSEAS OFFICE CLOSURES

Andrew J. Cassey

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Global trade and economics International Business and FDI Economic and Technological Innovation

Abstract

Estimating the impact of state import promotion programs on exports is difficult because of a simultaneity program. The 2003 California budget crisis provides a natural experiment allowing for an unbiased estimate. Due to the crisis, California closed all 12 overseas offices on 1 January 2004. Applying the differences‐in‐differences estimator to a sample of 44 countries over eight years yields an estimated 2%–3% increase in exports if the offices remained open. But this estimate is not statistically significant. Therefore, I find no statistical evidence that California's overseas offices increased exports. (JEL F13, H76, O24)

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References

2001Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data 2006Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?1964Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy 2006Ins, outs, and the duration of trade 2009Export promotion agencies: Do they work?2007State Visits and International Trade 2010Do trade missions increase trade?2000An Evaluation of State Sponsored Promotion Programs

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2015The Destinations of State Trade Missions

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