Development of disaggregate mode choice models of intercity travel in Canada

Abstract

This paper reports and discusses the results of an effort to develop disaggregate behavioral mode choice models of intercity travel in Canada. Currently available data bases of intercity travel in Canada are reviewed. The feasibility of using data from national travel surveys to develop statistically reliable intercity mode choice models is examined, and directions for future disaggregate data collection efforts are offered. The models developed are of the multinomial logit (MNL) type which included all intercity passenger travel modes: auto, air, bus, and rail. For purposes of estimation, the travel market was segmented by trip length (short, long); trip purpose (business, recreational); and geographical location of the trip (east, west). Then, a separate model was estimated in each sector. The models were estimated using the data collected by Statistics Canada as a part of the Labor Force Survey (The Canadian Travel Survey, CTS). The quality of the calibrated models varied from one region to another and from one travel sector to another. Overall, the models were reasonably accurate in predicting modal shares of the most frequently used modes (auto and air). The underrepresentation of the bus and rail modes in the data sets led to a deterioration in the performance of the models in predicting market shares of these two modes. More specifically, the predictive ability of the models measured by the likelihood ratio index varied from a low of 0.58 in the short travel sector to a high of 0.94 in the long travel sector. The transferability of the models described in this study was recently examined by Abdelwahab (1991). Key words: mode choice, disaggregate, travel behavior, multinomial logit, intercity, data base.

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