Dealignment and demobilisation? Nonvoting in New Zealand 1938–1990

Abstract

New Zealand has had a reputation for high voting participation, but age‐eligible turnout has declined since 1938 and, despite a brief recovery between 1975 and 1984, continued to fall subsequently. By 1990 it was far closer to the average turnout of Western democracies. Brief analysis of aggregate data since 1938 sets the scene for more specific study of individual‐level data from the 1963, 1981, and 1990 elections, which indicates effects which are minimal for institutional factors, small for social and demographic variables, and substantial for changes in public attitudes. In particular, dealignment of the party system and voter demobilisation are associated with declining interest in politics, political efficacy, and party identification. While also associated with extra‐parliamentary mass action to the partial detriment of voting among the university‐educated in 1981, a more general mobilisation of postmaterialist issues was probably responsible for the post‐1975 turnout recovery. After 1984 the longer‐term trend was reestablished.

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