POPULATION GROWTH AND INDUSTRIALIZATION

Abstract

The role of population growth in the process of industrialization is studied in a general equilibrium model. It provides a formal presentation of Rostow’s insight of the role of a leading sector in industrialization. Population growth may lead to a shortage of food and a breakdown of the industrialization process. However, population growth may benefit the manufacturing sector in the adoption of increasing returns to scale technologies. Elasticity of demand for agricultural goods plays an important role in determining whether an improvement of agricultural technology or an increase of population is beneficial to the manufacturing sector. A comparison of China and Britain before the Industrial Revolution shows that research and development are necessary for sustained growth. Achieving industrialization independently requires a combination of a sufficiently large market size from the demand side and a sufficiently large supply of technologies from the supply side. (JELO14, E10, N10, Q01)

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