MONEY, OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN AFRICAN ECONOMIES1

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the long‐run money‐inflation relation for 36 African countries using cross‐section and panel data analysis. The focus is on the recent claim by De Grauwe and Polan that the common finding in multi‐country studies of a strong positive link typically reflects the presence of high‐inflation countries in the sample and on Nelson's criticisms of the data and methodology employed in that study. Adjusting the De Grauwe and Polan methodology to take account of many of Nelson's criticisms, I confirm a weak long‐run relation between money growth and inflation for countries when money growth and inflation are below 10%, but a strong relation when money growth and inflation move much above that number. This result is not dependent on the inclusion of high inflation countries in the cross‐section and panel data samples.

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