A Test of the Overconfidence Phenomenon Using Audio Signals

Yoram Bar‐Tal · Anat Sarid · Liat Kishon‐Rabin

13 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of General Psychology

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Memory Processes and Influences Neuroscience and Music Perception

Abstract

The existence of the overconfidence phenomenon was examined using a signal detection paradigm. Fifty-five participants were asked to decide whether they heard a signal or noise only, and to rate how certain they were of their decisions. The results confirmed the existence of overconfidence as well as the "hard-easy" effect.

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1977Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?1982Subjective confidence in forecasts 1996Determinants of Overconfidence and Miscalibration: The Roles of Random Error and Ecological Structure 1996Beliefs about Overconfidence, Including Its Cross-National Variation 1994Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

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