Attaining the International Development Targets: Will Growth Be Enough?

Abstract

During the late 1980s and early 1990s improvements in health and education and progress in poverty reduction ground to a halt, or began to be eroded, in many developing regions and in the transition countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The DAC International Development Targets (IDTs) reflect the concern of development agencies and their developing country partners about these trends (see Table 1 in the Overview article in this issue). The present article considers whether these targets are attainable. The structure of the article is as follows. The following two sections review the economic literature and examine what data from the 1980s and 1990s can tell us about the determinants of changes in poverty and human development over this period. The next two sections outline the methods of the poverty projections and give estimates of poverty in 2015 under various scenarios, followed by projections for the human development targets with estimates for infant, under-five and maternal mortality and primary school enrolment rates. The final section draws together the key conclusions regarding the attainability of the DAC targets.

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