Statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis

Abstract

This paper discusses the issue of statistical characterization of life drivers for a probabilistic design analysis (PDA) approach to support the conventional deterministic structural design methods that are currently used. The probabilistic approach takes into consideration the modeling inadequacies and uncertainties in many design variables such as loads, environments, and material properties. The importance of the distributional assumption is motivated by illustrating an example where the results differ substantially due to the distribution selected. Different types of distributions are discussed and techniques for estimating the parameters are given. Given this information, procedures are outlined for selecting the appropriate distribution based on the particular type of variable (i.e., dimensional, performance) as well as the information that is available (i.e., test data, engineering analysis). Finally, techniques are given for generating random numbers from these selected distributions within the PDA process.

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