Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862–1879

Gregor W. Smith · R. Todd Smith

38 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of Economic History

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Historical Economic and Social Studies Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

This article proposes a unified framework for studying the greenback-gold price during the U.S. suspension of convertibility from 1862 to 1879.The gold price is viewed as a floating exchange rate, with a fixed destination given by gold standard parity because of the prospect of resumption. This perspective is tested using daily data for the entire period, and the effect of news during and after the Civil War is measured. New evidence of a decline in the volatility of gold returns after the Resumption Act of 1875 provides statistical support for the importance of expectations of resumption.

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References

1983Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies 1980On estimating the expected return on the market 1964A Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960 1964A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 1911The purchasing power of money 1911The Purchasing Power of Money.1986Handbook of international economics 1984Stochastic Methods in Economics and Finance.

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