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Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to fischhoff and MacGregor
16 references·2 citing·35 second hop
Subjective confidence in forecasts: A response to fischhoff and MacGregor (1986)Subjective confidence in forecasts: A res…The Psychology of Control (1985)The Psychology of ControlBehavioural decision theory (1984)Behavioural decision theorySubjective confidence in forecasts (1982)Subjective confidence in fore…Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions (1982)Distribution of probability a…Changes in the realism and distribution of probability assessments as a function of question type (1982)Changes in the realism and di…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…Unrealistic optimism about future life events. (1980)Unrealistic optimism about fu…Cultural Variation In Probabilistic Thinking: Alternative Ways Of Dealing With Uncertainty (1980)Cultural Variation In Probabi…Uncertainty measurement: A cognitive taxonomy (1978)Uncertainty measurement: A co…Sources of bias in the prediction of future events (1978)Sources of bias in the predic…Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? (1977)Do those who know more also k…Cultural Differences in Viewing Uncertainty and Assessing Probabilities (1977)Cultural Differences in Viewi…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Decision Theory (1969)Decision TheoryStability of Choices among Uncertain Alternatives (1956)Stability of Choices among Un…Buyer-supplier collaboration: A macro, micro, and congruence perspective (2021)Buyer-supplier collaboration:…The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight? (2014)The Aggregation of Expert Jud…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)The theory of decision making. (1954)Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. (1966)Back-Translation for Cross-Cultural Research (1970)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Indigenous Chinese Personality Constructs (2001)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Knowledge and Cognition (1975)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Party Policy in Modern Democracies (2006)Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. (1975)Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis (1991)Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics” (2002)Market-Oriented Ethnography: Interpretation Building and Marketing Strategy Formulation (1994)Windows of Opportunity: Temporal Patterns of Technological Adaptation in Organizations (1994)The Contours of Positive Human Health (1998)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Optimism, coping, and health: Assessment and implications of generalized outcome expectancies. (1985)Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. (1988)Hopelessness depression: A theory-based subtype of depression. (1989)Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries (1988)A Sensitivity Analysis Approach for Some Deterministic Multi‐Criteria Decision‐Making Methods* (1997)The asymptotic elasticity of utility functions and optimal investment in incomplete markets (1999)Evaluating the best main battle tank using fuzzy decision theory with linguistic criteria evaluation (2002)Development of NASA-TLX (Task Load Index): Results of Empirical and Theoretical Research (1988)Epistemic Injustice (2007)
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  • 1980Unrealistic optimism about future life events.4,996 cited
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  • 1980Cultural Variation In Probabilistic Thinking: Alternative Ways Of Dealing With Uncertainty181 cited
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  • 1978Sources of bias in the prediction of future events59 cited
  • 1982Changes in the realism and distribution of probability assessments as a function of question type

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Cited by

  • 2014The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?123 cited
  • 2021Buyer-supplier collaboration: A macro, micro, and congruence perspective16 cited