Accuracy of Self-Predictions Versus Judgments by Knowledgeable Others

Abstract

Two studies examined the relative accuracy of subjects' self-predictions of their future behavior versus predictions made by others who knew them very well. Self-predictions were more accurate than those made by subjects' mothers or peers. This was especially true when negative outcomes were predicted, when predictions were made against the base rate, or when events with less extreme base rates were predicted. Subjects whose behavior was more atypical and those who described themselves as impulsive were more difficult to predict, both for themselves and generally for others. Differential accuracy is discussed in terms of the role of self-protective biases and the information base that is available for predictions.

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