The Changing Shape of Soviet Mortality, 1958–1985: An Evaluation of Old and New Evidence

Abstract

Changes in mortality in the Soviet Union have attracted the attention of both scholars and the popular media. After a hiatus of more than ten years, the government of the Soviet Union has released data on mortality for the 1980s, which allow assessment of recent changes. The new life table for 1984–85 shows that mortality of Soviet females has improved at ages below 45 and deteriorated above that age since the last age-specific mortality data were published in the early 1970s, while mortality of males has improved at ages below 25 and deteriorated above that age. At the same time, the official mortality rates for persons aged 60 and over in 1958–59, 1968–71, and 1984–85 are implausibly low. Poor-quality data at the older ages, particularly in rural areas and the less developed regions of the country, contributed to these low mortality rates of the old. As data quality has improved with time, the reported mortality rates at old ages have increased. Adjustment of the official data for error, especially above age 60, shows that whereas the reported value of e0 for males fell by 1.5 years between 1958–59 and 1984–85, the actual value probably fell by no more than 0.5 years; the corresponding figures for females were a reported rise of one year, and an actual rise of at least two years. Examination of these Soviet data illustrates how important consideration of error in mortality statistics of the old can be in understanding mortality trends.

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